MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has officially endorsed a comprehensive long-range plan for its coal industry, establishing a production goal of 662 million tonnes annually by 2050 within its projected scenario. This initiative extends Russia’s national coal policies into the middle of the century. In 2024, Russia produced approximately 443 million tonnes of coal. The new benchmark thus indicates a significant rise from that level. The government approved this plan under Order No. 2606-r, issued on September 22, 2026.
Rather than a single fixed forecast, the programme outlines multiple potential production trajectories. Its target scenario envisions output reaching 530.1 million tonnes by 2030. Production then increases to 595.2 million tonnes in 2036, ultimately climbing to 662 million tonnes in 2050. Alternative scenarios project lower totals for the final year. The stress scenario predicts 318.9 million tonnes, while a conservative approach estimates 460.8 million tonnes. An inertial scenario anticipates about 586.4 million tonnes.
Exports of coal are also a key component of the long-term objectives in the plan. Under the target scenario, exports are expected to hit 266.7 million tonnes in 2030 and 320.2 million tonnes in 2036. By 2050, this figure is projected to increase to 350.1 million tonnes. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak mentioned that Russian coal exports grew by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The programme also takes into account domestic consumption, processing capacity, extraction methods, and regional output levels.
Eastern Siberia and Russian Far East to Play Larger Role in Production
The government’s strategy allocates a greater share of coal production to Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. These areas accounted for 48.3% of Russia’s coal output in 2024. Their combined contribution is projected to grow to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050 across different scenarios. Russia reports having over 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves. The plan emphasizes maintaining current mining capacity while expanding resource areas to meet future targets.
Coal extraction and processing techniques are also assigned separate numerical goals in the plan. In 2024, processed coal—excluding lignite—accounted for 58.9% of total output. The plan aims to increase this share to between 74% and 76% by 2050. In 2024, open-pit mines produced 78.4% of Russia’s coal; under the long-term outlook, their share is expected to grow to between 82% and 85%. The programme incorporates initiatives related to labor productivity, mining technology, safety standards, and environmental compliance.
The Programme Will Be Implemented in Three Phases Leading to 2050
Russia plans to execute the coal strategy across three distinct phases. The first phase lasts until 2030 and focuses on immediate industry development and production initiatives. The second phase spans from 2031 to 2036, concentrating on processing, coal utilization, and transportation infrastructure. The final phase extends from 2037 to 2050. The Energy Ministry will supervise the programme’s implementation alongside other federal and regional authorities. Regular annual progress reports will be submitted to the Ministry of Economic Development per government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin unveiled the updated plan during a government session on September 21. It replaces the earlier coal industry programme through 2035, which Russia approved in 2020. Novak noted that the new strategy envisions a sixfold increase in the coal sector’s gross value added by 2050. He also estimated the overall multiplier effect at nearly 10 trillion roubles. The target of 662 million tonnes remains the goal for the target scenario but is not the sole production pathway outlined in the plan.